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Asia's grocery market poised to accelerate

Asia will continue to be the biggest engine of growth in the grocery market and its sales will exceed that of Europe and North America combined within five years, according to new forecasts from research organisation IGD.

Global growth will be driven by a combination of inflation, population and rising incomes.

Highlights from IGD’s latest global grocery forecasts to 2021 include:

  • Asia’s grocery market is set to increase by $1,016bn, an annual compound growth rate of 6.2%
  • China will extend its lead over the USA as the world’s biggest grocery market with India in third place closing the gap
  • The fastest growth rate will be in Africa and the Middle East, albeit from a relatively small base
  • Europe and North America will enjoy a similar annual compound growth rate of 3.4% and 3.6% respectively

Joanne Denney-Finch, IGD chief executive, said: “Although there are several risks to the global economy and a danger of new barriers to trade in particular, we are optimistic that these can be surmounted. We expect all regions to grow their grocery markets over the next five years presenting big opportunities globally for manufacturers and retailers.”

On Asia, Joanne Denney-Finch said: “Asia’s grocery market will continue to prosper with China remaining comfortably in first place and three other Asian countries within the top 10. Millions more people across Asia will become middle class and many more consumer goods companies will view this region as the key to their growth strategy.”

On the MINT countries, Joanne Denney-Finch said: “Provided there is reasonable political stability, we expect the recent, fast-paced growth of the MINT countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) to keep attracting high levels of investment from retailers and manufacturers alike. Nigeria continues to impress as the fastest growing of all large-scale grocery markets in the world.”

Top 15 largest grocery markets in 2021

  Country 2016 value ($bn) 2021 value ($bn) CAGR (%)
1 China 1,148 1,504 5.5
2 USA 1,100 1,311 3.6
3 India 450 696 9.1
4 Japan 431 446 0.7
5 Brazil 296 426 7.5
6 Russia 266 347 5.4
7 Indonesia 201 305 8.7
8 Germany 260 287 2.0
9 France 247 280 2.6
10 United Kingdom 249 273 1.8
11 Mexico 189 253 6.0
12 Turkey 159 229 7.6
13 Nigeria 122 209 11.3
14 Italy 190 209 1.8
15 Egypt 101 173 11.3
16 Philippines 96 150 9.3
17 South Korea 108 133 4.3
18 Spain 118 132 2.3
19 Pakistan 88 129 8.0
20 Bangladesh 63 111 11.9


Notes to editors:

  1. IGD is a food and grocery research and training charity
  2. IGD defines the grocery retail market as all food, drink and non-food products (e.g. health & beauty, pet care, clothing, DIY) sold through all retail outlets selling predominantly food in a given country. This definition includes modern retail formats, such as supermarkets and hypermarkets, and traditional retail formats such as open air markets and traditional food stores such as bakers. It excludes wholesale and foodservice formats and drugstores/pharmacies
  3. IGD market sizes are 'top down', derived from national statistical bodies wherever possible. In all other cases, our market sizes represent IGD estimates and are based on a consistent methodology and knowledge of local markets
  4. The figures represent our base scenario and assume a good level of international political and economic stability
  5. All figures accurate as of December 2016

For more information contact:
Alexandra Crisp on: or 01923 857141 / 07590 183295

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Under the leadership of Joanne Denney-Finch IGD has grown in stature as a charity and become the leading source of information and best practice on the food and grocery industry worldwide.

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