Tariffs – a threat to resilience?

The US has enacted new tariff measures against China. In response, China promptly imposed counter-tariffs on US goods. China has focused on US food imports and has blocked the export of certain technologies to the US. The US President announced last night that most goods imported from Mexico and some from Canada would be exempt from tariffs for at least four weeks.

The introduction of tariffs hampers economic performance for all parties involved. Geopolitics ranks highly as one of the leading risks facing the food system, identified in our upcoming report Embracing resilience in the UK food system. Register your interest in receiving the report.

IGD Opinion

The decision to go ahead with tariffs against China is not surprising – China has previously been identified as a trade rival by President Trump.

Actions against Mexico and Canada come as more of a surprise. Tariffs against these nations were previously suspended, after they agreed to make changes to the way that they manage borders. It is not clear what has driven the change in approach on the part of the US government, but abrupt changes will make it hard for other countries to develop relations with the US.

If the food trade between the US and China contracts – as it did during previous trade conflicts – US exporters will look for other markets to receive their goods. Similarly, Chinese buyers will seek alternative sources of supply, likely assisting other major food exporters, such as Australia and Brazil.

Shifting trade flows is not easy, but the longer trade tensions go on – and the higher tariffs go – the more likely it is to happen.

See our article US tariff policy impacts on the UK food system.

Employment rights

The government has proposed amendments to the Employment Rights Bill, following consultation with business, trade unions and wider civil society. These relate to consultations on:

•    application of zero hours contracts measures to agency workers
•    strengthening remedies against abuse of rules on collective redundancy
•    creating a Modern Framework for Industrial Relations
•    strengthening Statutory Sick Pay
•    tackling non-compliance in the umbrella company market

Obesity warning

A new study published in The Lancet, predicts continued rapid increase in the prevalence of overweight adults and obesity worldwide.
 
The prevalence of these conditions has already increased significantly from 1990 to 2021.
 
If current trends persist, over half of adults and more than one third of younger people are expected to be overweight or obese by 2050.
 
The report states that 72% of UK men and 64% of UK women are currently overweight or obese, and these figures are projected to increase to 80% and 73%, respectively, by 2050 if no interventions are made.
 
The authors emphasise that no country has yet managed to tackle this issue and call for “aggressive and targeted measures.”
 
Separately, the Royal College of Physicians has called on government to take action to “create healthier food environments.”

Sign up to the Health and Sustainability newsletter to find out more about IGD’s work in April’s edition.

IGD Opinion

The UK government is pressing on with implementation of policies introduced by its predecessor (e.g. restrictions on advertising certain foods).
 
If these prove ineffective, we may expect additional measures, meaning that it is important for businesses to take the initiative.
 
IGD research is supporting this movement with real-world studies to investigate methods of “nudging” consumers towards better choices in-store.

Bird flu outbreaks

Recent bird flu cases in Herefordshire and Yorkshire have led to culling and economic losses. The UK government has established protection zones and declared a nationwide Avian Influenza Prevention Zone. Enhanced biosecurity measures are in place to control the spread and protect the poultry industry.