UK forecasts: a five-year view

Our latest forecast is more subdued than in previous years, reflecting the significant headwinds facing the industry and the wider economy. With inflation remaining the leading dOur food-to-go market forecast provides a detailed five-year outlook for the market and its five sectors. Get detailed insights into the growth drivers to 2030 and how inflation will impact the market. Use the report to understand the short- and long-term outlooks and the opportunities for each sector.river of grocery market growth, use this report to understand how to overcome the sector’s central challenge, to drive real-term growth at a time when household budgets remain under sustained pressure.

The Away From Home market is facing challenges. With declining volumes, value growth is largely due to price increases. The need to raise prices has been accentuated by operators’ need to maintain profit margins amid rising labour costs. Use this report to see how the Away From Home market will evolve over the next five years; understand the dynamics affecting each sector, and identify growth opportunities by sector.

By combining our eating in (retail) data and Away From Home forecasts, this report gives a comprehensive and unique view of the UK’s total food and drink market. Use the report to understand the shape of the total food and drink market, identify opportunities in and out of home, and benchmark your growth trajectory against the market.

This report provides a high-level forecast for non-food product sales in grocery stores. It enables readers to explore how the market’s components, non-edible grocery, tobacco and vape, and other non-food products’ sales will evolve over the next five years and identifies the growth opportunities retailers and suppliers can benefit from.

Our food-to-go market forecast provides a detailed five-year outlook for the market and its five sectors. Get detailed insights into the growth drivers to 2030 and how inflation will impact the market. Use the report to understand the short- and long-term outlooks and the opportunities for each sector.

This report breaks down how the grocery and foodservice sector performed in 2024, identifies the customer channels driving growth, and how this compares with recent years. See our five-year segment forecasts for 2025 to 2030 and discover how growth will evolve after a period of volatility.

Our Economics team explores the impact of rising costs on UK businesses and consumers and explains, through our updated retail food inflation forecast, how this is set to impact food prices in the UK.

Our 2025 inflation forecasts for the Away From Home sector are up versus our projection from June 2024 as rising labour, fuel, raw material, and energy costs filter through into the service-driven sector. For more, read the Viewpoint report, pages 13 to 19.